Peter Mailler: 'I hoped for the best but planned for the worst'

I am looking out my window and marvel at the contrast between the view this time last year and today. We are enjoying a decile 1 or 2 year to date rainfall. (We are between Boggabilla and Tulloona on the NSW/Qld border which are enjoying a 16th and a 6th percentile rainfall year respectively.)

I am not moaning about it. Oddly and surprisingly I am pretty comfortable with the season, probably because I expected it.

We have crops in the ground that are filling well and the grain prices are holding at strong levels. We are just starting to feed cattle. We have improved our grazing systems as well as our capacity to feed.

I am not mentioning this to big note about our management of our farming systems or commercial resilience. I am more interested in talking about mental resilience and what I am observing this season.

I started the year with a view that we were likely to see a dry year that would probably culminate in a dry spring and summer. This view was informed by the climate science and observable weather trends that scream that we are well down the path on forecasted climate change. The key message in all of that is that we should expect more extreme weather events more frequently.

I implemented a seasonal management plan that was very conservative. I figured that preparing for a very dry and warm season would limit the downside risk on the business. Basically, I hoped for the best, but planned for the worst in the hope that I could only be pleasantly surprised.

I am not pleased that it hasn't rained much this year, but in truth the season and the outcome have been better than I anticipated and we are well prepared for what is unfolding.

Now things could have been much different if it had rained here. My management would have unnecessarily capped yield and profit. Indeed, some producers have had more ideal rain and some even too much.

So while I pat myself on the back about my management choices and feel oddly calm about a season that I would have regarded as calamitous when I started farming, the challenge of farming in a climate of increasing weather volatility is glaringly obvious.

Using our weather history as a reliable predictor is a hard paradigm to break, but it is essential that we do. Weather is easy to manage if you know ahead of time what it is going to do. It isn't a lack of rain that is hardest to manage, it is the lack of rain you were relying on that is hard to manage.

It seems a clear head and an understanding of changing risks are increasingly important in our prospects of success. Improving resilience in agriculture is going to rely on improving the science around reliability of all terms of weather forecasting and it may well prove to be the hardest thing to achieve.

I know that there are many factors that underpin success in agriculture. Luck is certainly an important element, but luck is frequently described as the intersection of preparation and opportunity.

Our preparations must constantly evolve with our circumstances.

I wish you all the best of luck for the season ahead and may we all be pleasantly surprised.

- Peter Mailler is grain and beef producer based near Boggabilla, on the NSW/Qld border.