Concerns over local supply in the wake of a poor season in the northern cropping belt and heat damage in Western Australia over the past fortnight is keeping Australian grain prices at higher levels than elsewhere globally.
Large carryover and a heavy export program out of Russia have helped tamp global prices in recent weeks.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) last week increased its forecast Russian wheat production to 91 million tonnes, up from 89.5m tonnes in its previous estimate, with exports set to tally 49.5m tonnes.
This is markedly higher than US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates of 85m tonnes.
Reuters recently reported Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat, had purchased a whopping 480,000 tonnes of Russia wheat at $US270 a tonne (A$420/t) on a cost and freight basis in a direct purchase, a move away from its traditional tender model of buying wheat.
Rabobank senior grains and oilseeds analyst Dennis Voznesenski said northern hemisphere harvest pressure, along with record Brazilian exports were other factors keeping a lid on global pricing.
However, he said Australian wheat prices had risen 4 per cent, non-GM canola 5pc and barley a whopping 14pc month on month, with the barley rally partly due to China dropping its tariffs and Australian exports resuming.
This compares to futures prices for wheat, corn and soy which declined 12pc, 14pc and 10pc month on month respectively on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Mr Voznesenski said the positive basis was now out as far as $A77 a tonne on the back of the dry conditions in both the northern WA wheatbelt and northern NSW and Queensland.
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) data showed August rainfall was 49.5 per cent below average for the nation as a whole,, making it the tenth driest August on record.
Along with the dry conditions here, issues with the crop in both Canada and Argentina are both being seen as potentially bullish on pricing, with Rabobank estimating prices of between $360 and $400/t for the flagship APW grade as an Australian average until mid-2024 when new crop northern hemisphere product comes online.
Local feed barley pricing is expected to trade on average between $25 and $50/t lower.