Talk of drier conditions, coupled with full feedlots and meatworks are continuing to hit store cattle prices, with steers selling for half what they were making 12 months ago.
Gippsland saleyards have experienced an influx of cattle from the east of the state, while feedlots were largely absent from last week's store pens.
Nutrien auctioneer Daniel Fischer, Wangaratta, said talk of an El Nino was driving confidence down.
"I keep saying heifer prices are awful because we have a media fraternity that keeps saying El Nino every minute," he said.
"For the last six months, all we have got is that we are going into El Nino.
"I am not saying we are not going into an El Nino, but around here we are faced with one of the best seasons we have probably ever had and our farmers are too scared to take advantage of it because of the continual saturation coverage that there is a drought on the way."
He said it appeared restockers were also trying to pick the bottom of the market.
"They are taking the attitude if they don't get them today, they will probably be cheaper next week or the week after, so they will sit and wait," he said.
Meat & Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson agreed confidence was having an impact on market performance.
"While Australia is not in drought, the market is performing as though we are in drought," Mr Atkinson said.
"The lack of confidence in buyers translates to a lack of demand and is having a direct effect on price."
On the flip side he said the continued high supply meant buyers could be selective.
He said in Victoria water storages were full, soil moisture profiles were "not too bad" and large parts of the state had had an "exceptional" season.
"Seasonality accounts for 90 per cent of buying decisions and confidence in producers," he said.
"Rain will turn the market around."
Elders auctioneer Joe Allen, Euroa, said there were a lot of store cattle in the system "because other areas are historically pretty dry for this time of year".
Mr Allen said while there was a good season in north-east and central Victoria, Euroa did not have large yardings in September and October.
He said the selling centre was competing against big numbers of cattle coming out of East Gippsland and NSW.
He said feedlots and abattoirs were well booked out in advance, with cattle coming out of drier areas.
"In the next few months, we will see a few more people sell prime cattle and be back in the market to replace them with stores," he said.
SEJ livestock agent James Kyle, Korumburra/Leongatha, said it was shaping up to be a really good spring in the area.
Mr Kyle said he received 42 millimetres of rain in his gauge between Thursday and Sunday last week.
He said warmth and sunshine this week would kick grass growth along.
"But I don't know whether it's going to kick the cattle prices much," he said.
He said while numbers would continue to swell, there were only so many cattle South Gippsland bullock fatteners could soak up.
"Obviously feedlot demand is the backbone, but even they are a bit hit and miss some weeks," he said.
Andrew Miller
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
