Australian irrigators will have to prepare for climate change by being prepared to adapt to new crops more suited to the environment according to research out of Bond University.
Lead researcher Marcus Randall, from Bond's Centre for Data Analytics, said the research had focused on modelling conditions in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.
Professor Randall said the research had to be refined further but the key take home message from the early work was that farmers had to be flexible.
"Having a holistic, whole of farm approach will be critical, ongoing viability will not just be based on what we have seen in terms of initial gross margins but growers will also have to figure out how they get more out of less water, and what crops present the best opportunity."
Based on current modelling he said irrigation water would be better used on summer vegetables, stone fruit and citrus than crops such as canola and cotton but he cautioned this only looked at the macro factors.
"Higher value crops such as horticulture and tree crops can generate good return on water investment but there is more to be considered, with trees you have to have the water each year no matter what and costs could rise sharply in years of drought, so perhaps we will find they are best grown in areas with high water reliability whereas other parts of the irrigation zone may be more opportunistic in their crops choices."
"There are also other factors, the perishable nature of horticultural crops would require investment in infrastructure, transport and processing."
Cotton is a popular summer irrigated crop but canola, a winter crop, is grown almost exclusively dryland in mainland Australia.
As part of his work Prof Randall has been mapping climate models looking 100 years into the future.
He said it was clear a 'business as usual' approach to irrigated cropping would not work under climate change scenarios.
"Simply reducing the volume of crops we grow to align with reduced water availability would reduce revenues by nearly 30 per cent," he said.
Early results found a focus on different crops and increasing the production of fruit and vegetables could make agriculture 30pc more profitable using the same amount of water.
"We found that by doubling the amount of area dedicated to horticulture - summer crops like zucchini and tomatoes, for example - significantly improves the profitability of agriculture in the MIA," he said.
Although both these crops are water intensive he said the dollars per millimetre of water were better than broadacre crops.