Fertiliser supply chains will be under close scrutiny over the critical autumn import period as Australian agriculture watches to see if the unrest in the Red Sea will create issues in getting product to Australia in a timely manner.
Typically, Australia has relied predominately on Chinese phosphate imports supplemented with local production.
However, Episode 3 analyst Andrew Whitelaw said that with China retaining an effective export ban on phosphate exports Australia would be forced to look further afield to exporters in North Africa to satisfy requirements.
The most effective way to transport the phosphate is via the Red Sea, but with the uncertainty in that region caused by militant Houthi rebels, consignments will most like come down Africa's west coast and around the Cape of Good Hope, a detour that costs around an extra fortnight.
"The Chinese situation is not something new, there have been issues with Chinese export restrictions over the past couple of years, but what is new are the issues in the Red Sea," Mr Whitelaw said.
"There should be no grave issues with the supply of the product, however there could be issues with the timing of arrival given there could be the enforced detour, which also could have some impact on pricing, although that should only be in terms of freight costs."
"Suppliers are probably within their rights to warn farmers about potential delays and to get their orders in early, but equally it should only be a small readjustment in the time required to get the product landed not the requirement to find a whole new source of supply."
At the farmer level, Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president Craig Henderson said farmers were increasingly looking to take supply chain interruptions out of the equation.
He said there had been a growing trend for farmers to install dedicated fertiliser storage facilities on-farm.
"There have been eight substantial farm businesses over the past six months or so which have put in big fertiliser storage sheds and I think that trend is going to continue to grow," Mr Henderson said.
"We'd love to be able to manage price a little by being active buyers of the product when it is cheaper, but mainly it will help ensure we can have the product when we need it."
"What we saw last year when there was not enough urea around when it was needed, it cost yields when we got to harvest so farmers are increasingly looking to have their own dedicated storage."
He said with a sealable storage and care to ensure the fertiliser was dry when it went in it was possible to store the fertiliser long-term.
"There are horror stories out there but if it does correctly you can store it for a long time."
While phosphate orders are generally predictable, calculated at a steady rate over the planted area, Mr Henderson said farmers were working through potential nitrogen requirements.
"We know what happens with P for the most part, but a lot of farmers are ensuring they've got a bit of cover for the starter requirements for N, they're probably not going too hard yet in terms of ordering until a bit more is known about the season."
"Prices are slightly higher than we'd like, getting back up to just a bit below $800/t so there is not the real incentive to order particularly early."
He said he anticipated a solid plant and associated solid demand for fertiliser, over a lot of eastern Australia.
"There has been pretty good summer rain in many parts, which sets people up for the cropping year ahead."