The headline wheat forecast figures from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) make grim reading at face value, with a 39 per cent drop in value.
However, as ABARES analyst Emily Dahl explained, digging beyond that startling statistic demonstrates the industry remains in rude health.
The nominal value of wheat production is forecast to fall by 39pc to $10.1 billion in 2023-24, but this comes off a record 2022-23 season.
Ms Dahl explained that while there was a significant fall from the 2022-23 record of $16.8 billion, it would still be the third highest value on record if achieved.
The fall was anticipated, given the two main drivers of value, yield and price, both fell.
Looking ahead, the 2024-25 season is expected to see a modest bounce back in value, with a 2pc increase to $10.4 billion, with improved production, on the back of good stored moisture, likely to offset anticipated lower prices.
Year on year wheat production is expected to rise from 26m tonnes in 2023-24 to 28.4m tonnes for the upcoming season, which is 7pc above the 10-year average.
Ms Dahl said ABARES expected world prices to ease because of improved production conditions in some major exporting countries and a recovery in global grain stocks.
She identified global sea freight disruption, which has stemmed from attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Houthi militants in Yemen, as a potential obstacles ahead of growers this season, while Australia's push to net zero has the potential to be an opportunity or a challenge for growers.
Last season's late boost was noted, with Ms Dahl saying the nominal value of wheat production forecast for 2023-24 has been revised up by $137 million since the December 2023 Agricultural Commodities Report, reflecting an upwards revision to wheat production, with many growers reporting markedly better yields than pre-harvest expectations.
Looking forward on the pricing front Ms Dahl said a series of big production years in Russia, increased certainty surrounding exports out of the Black Sea and big corn carryover in the US would all conspire to keep a lid on prices.