Farmers, experts on water use during droughts along the Murray-Darling

This was the message from one of the speakers at an Agribusiness Australia-hosted event on February 29, which discussed the government's passing of the Restoring Our Rivers Bill through Parliament in December 2023, which aimed to give more time to meet water recovery targets at the Murray-Darling Basin.

The conference heard from speakers Aither founder Chris Olszack, who specialises in water policy and economy, Cobram Estate Olives chair Rob McGavin, LAWD senior director Danny Thomas and Victorian The Nationals leader Peter Walsh.

Mr Olszak said the government opened up the potential for buybacks and "a number of mechanisms" to deliver its desired environmental water, but there was a "good chance" it could fail to meet the figure.

He said about 2000 gigalitres of water had been recovered for the environment, about 20-30 per cent of the total entitlement.

"What's been a debate in progress for the past 10 years has been the Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism," he said.

He said an additional 450GL was required under the new legislation and a further 605GL for offset projects, meaning investment in works to help deliver environmental outcomes without needing buybacks.

"It's also opened up the potential for buybacks to contribute to the 450GL," he said.

He said they were still unaware how the government would reach its target and whether it would buyback water.

Mr McGavin said allowing non-productive users over consumptive users into the temporary water market was a fundamental issue.

"It's allowing non-productive users into the temporary water market to buy unlimited volumes when that water becomes unavailable or too expensive for consumptive users," he said.

"We had a bit of a taste of this in the last drought."

He said it was "nonsensical" because it was an artificial market people joined to make money, when people may need it to keep livestock going.

"Consumptive users compete with each other in periods of drought," he said.

"The second issue is the peak and trough is worse now because the baseline demand disappears, dairy farmers in the Goulburn are basically gone."

Mr Walsh said as the government edged closer to its next election campaign, it may have to enter the market with a high price to achieve its goals.

"The Commonwealth will have to find someone who will sell to get what they want," he said.

"I wouldn't be a fast seller."

Mr Olszack said most people were trying to develop strategies to manage the capital efficiency equation in the long term.

"Most horticultural businesses below the Murray, I can't think of any with full coverage of entitlements," he said.

"In the lower Murray, it will add pressure in a drought year.

"There won't be enough water to go around."

He said there needed to be a stronger focus on outcomes of water management.

Mr Thomas said there would be opportunities for large, privately-owned water holders to make the most of buybacks.

"It will facilitate them retiring and financial succession for the family," he said.

"At the end of the day it's a natural resource, it's absolutely finite."