Australia dodges fert supply instability

Josh Linville, vice president and global head of fertiliser at StoneX, said there have been problems with supplies globally due to concerns such as access to the Red Sea freight corridor due to Houthi rebels attacking ships and Chinese restrictions on phosphate exports.

However, with the critical autumn fertiliser purchasing season upon us, Mr Linville said Australian consumers should not expect to see significant disruptions at this stage.

"Australia has done very well in terms of circumventing global fertiliser supply issues," he said.

"Importers were able to anticipate the disruptions in the market and make secondary, and sometimes third, plans for backup supply origins."

"This has not been without hiccups, as many around the world have witnessed, but given the world issues and Australia's unique location versus the world, it has exceeded our expectations."

While there are some factors emerging that could see fertiliser prices fall further, Mr Linville cautioned Australian growers it was unlikely to be in time to be of major benefit for their purchases.

He said fertiliser importers would be ensuring they did not over commit with purchases due to the threat of owning expensive stock in the event of a price decline.

"The urea and phosphate global markets currently look relatively steady, but there are reasons to be concerned about a price decline eventually happening which will have importers a little more nervous on additional vessels due to the higher price risk."

However, he said there was little reason for grower customers to be concerned about availability of product.

"As has been seen in the past, supplies eventually make their way to the farm and there is little reason to believe this year to be any different."

That said, it is worth having more conversations with suppliers/retailers to make sure supply plans are made."

Globally, Mr Linville said at present markets remained settled for both phosphorus and nitrogen.

"Phosphate continues to see adequate demand globally which is keeping most origin points values flat to higher."

"Nitrogen has been the same, though recent new sales have been slower."

He said potential price falls were unlikely to manifest prior to the middle of the year and more likely into the Australian spring which would be of little benefit from Australian grain growers.

There has been a busy start to the year in terms of Australia's import program, with P product inputs hitting 335,000 tonnes for January, far in excess of what came in for January 2023.

Mr Linville said this was due to importers looking to ensure supply.

"With the lack of Chinese exports and a general tightness of global supplies, importers are trying to stay ahead of issues."

He said as usual P demand was expected to be relatively static, however the nitrogen situation would come down to seasonal conditions.

"Nitrogen does present its own challenge if hot and dry conditions persist."

In terms of potential interruptions to the global supply chain Mr Linville said while the focus had been on the Red Sea the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Persian Gulf, was also an area to monitor closely.

The gulf region is a vital source of urea supplies globally and Mr Linville said unlike the Red Sea there was no alternate freight route should the ability to move through the Persian Gulf be restricted.

"The Red Sea situation is cumbersome but vessels are able to bypass the region by going around Africa, additional shipping time and cost are associated with the move but the option is there."

"If we were to see Iran get into a direct conflict with the west, we could see transit in the Persian Gulf grind to a halt."

"Iran dominates the eastern seaboard and as we have seen from time to time, can intercept ships easily."

"With millions of tons of urea exports originating from this part of the world, a stoppage of vessel traffic would have catastrophic effects on the global urea marketplace."