More than one in three cattle operators are planning on increasing the size of their herd this year, results from the first ever survey of beef producer intentions run by Meat & Livestock Australia has revealed.
While that is less than the 47 per cent who have indicated they would decrease their herd size, it encompasses the bigger operations which means overall, a 1pc increase in the national herd size will be likely.
In a nutshell, the big producers are getting bigger and the smaller producers are getting smaller.
The survey results indicate an on-farm grassfed adult beef herd of 24.22 million for 2023 and 24.44m for 2024.
Confidence in a good season and the belief cattle prices will continue to increase this year are key drivers for those increasing numbers but over and above that these producers have long-term expansion plans on the back of faith in the industry.
As many as 44pc listed long-term expansion plans as the main reason they'd have a bigger herd this year.
In the wake of the Australian Bureau of Statistics abandoning it's cattle herd surveys, MLA ran its own over the period from November 13 to December 18 last year, where 3,767 grassfed cattle producers from across Australia were surveyed.
Only 15pc indicated their herd size would stay the same. Along with the season and expectations of a good market, better calving and fertility and better pasture improvement played a role in growth plans.
Retaining more heifers than usual is the overwhelming way they will expand - 59pc will do it this way, compared to just 13pc planning to purchase more heifers.
That retention of heifers is slightly stronger in the north than the south.
Meanwhile, the decrease posture was consistent across all states and between northern and southern producers.
Those decreasing their herd size had the opposite view of the season ahead - with the expectation of dry conditions - and of the cattle market, citing expected volatility.
Those were the two key drivers for decreasing their herd size, although increases in input costs played a sizeable role.
Other reasons were shifting to other commodities, health issues and retirement.
Producers in Western Australia were forecasting the largest decrease in herd size, of 7pc, while Queensland producers were far more buoyant, reporting a forecast 4pc increase.
Sentiment
MLA's manager of market information Steve Bignell said while there were mixed views about the future of the beef cattle industry over the next 12 months, the results indicated an overall optimism.
"It's fair to say northern producers are more optimistic," he said.
"While there are variations across states, the results suggest that Queensland producers are more positive than producers in other states while producers in WA held a far less positive outlook.
"And the larger producers were more positive in their outlook than smaller producers."
The breakdown shows that slightly more producers, at 38pc, see a positive future over the next 12 months, a decent cohort at 26pc see a negative outlook and around one in three, or 30pc, are uncommitted and probably uncertain about the year ahead.
Herd and producer make-up
Angus and Hereford breeds dominate herds among southern producers, accounting for an estimated 79pc of numbers.
Among northern producers, Brahman and Droughtmaster breeds are most prominent, accounting for an estimated 55pc.
The breed figures were determined on the dam.
Most beef producers - 87pc - define themselves as a cow-calf operator and most of those say weaners are their main game.
A total of 24pc see themselves as backgrounders, fatteners, traders or growers and only 4pc say they are stud producers.
Where they will sell
Saleyard auctions will remain the primary channel for beef cattle sales this year, with 65pc of producers selling through a saleyard, 11pc direct to processor and 8pc direct to feedlot.
Only 1pc will sell into live export, but Mr Bignell said it was important to note this was producer numbers not cattle numbers.
In northern Australia, it is 3pc of producers selling into live export.
Mr Bignell also made the point that live-ex sales might also have fallen into other categories like vertically integrated sales, contract and paddock sales.