Slight dip for cattle prices this week but doubled by the end of 2025

Already the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator is back 13 cents a kilogram carcase weight and feeder steers 10c/kg live weight on seven days ago.

The EYCI is today at 609c/kg. That's still a long way from the 349c it hit in October and longer-term the talk is positive.

Global AgriTrends analyst Simon Quilty believes cattle prices could double by the end of 2025; and that will set a 'new norm' for at least the following seven years, if not longer.

The bright star right now, though, is arguably cows. Big numbers are coming forward, both out of the paddock and through the yards, but the the processor cow indicator hasn't collapsed. In fact, it lifted 7c/kg liveweight last week, Meat & Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Erin Lukey reported.

High quality processor cows were seen in most states, with United States demand for lean beef likely driving processor competition, she said.

Heavy cows above 520kg received a 10c premium.

Agents said that was very good news for those producers wanting to free up space on-farm for younger breeders as they look to rebuild numbers, eyeing off what most people now expect is going to be a pretty good 2024 season-wise.

Queenslanders in particular are reported to be very active, and southward bound, chasing good-quality heifers both for breeding and backgrounding.

Victorian agent Alex Collins, McKean McGregor, said even as far south as he is at Bendigo, the Queensland influence was helping to keep a solid foundation in the market.

"Our producers are cognisant of the fact the market is headed towards rebuild and that demand from the north is strong," he said.

"We don't think we'll see the highs of two years ago again but there is confidence we will see a good sustainable level."

Mr Collins said above-average rain for summer, coupled with the recent rain, had meant most of the producers in his patch were looking to take advantage of places that were still dry and buy in cattle to fatten.

Simon Quilty told the Wagyu Edge conference in Cairns last week that producers could expect "a sustained increase in the value of livestock."

A key part of this would be the weather, Mr Quilty said.

International experts were saying Australia would move to a La Nina in June and experience a very wet period in the back end of this year.

That would see an overall rebuild take off. More moisture in the system points to heifer retention. Tightness in supply lends itself to high prices.

Right now, only Queensland and Tasmania is rebuilding.

The number of states in herd liquidation had gradually increased over the past calendar year, with the fourth quarter, which has just finished, showing Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Western Australia all reducing herds due to weather pressure, Mr Quilty said.

"And the liquidation has become more intense in the past quarter in those states," he said.

It was quite unusual that states were moving in opposite directions, Mr Quilty said.

"But these figures matter - the more we liquidate the higher prices will potentially go," he said.

"The tightness in cattle supply will be critical as a part of that elevation in cattle prices over the next five years."