Australia's national science agency the CSIRO has highlighted four future scenarios that paint a picture of what Australian farming systems could look like by 2050, and not all of them are rosy.
The CSIRO's Ag2050 Scenarios Report highlights that Australia must act now to accelerate agricultural innovation to achieve productive, resilient and sustainable farming systems by 2050.
It also highlights that some key challenges threaten the prosperity of Australia's farming sector including climate change, emissions reduction needs, supply chain disruptions, workforce access, changing consumer preferences, maintaining market access, and long innovation timelines.
The report is a result of consultation and co-design with more than 100 industry stakeholders. It explores a range of significant trends, risks, opportunities and actions needed to support Australian farming systems into the future.
The four evidence-based future scenarios paint a picture of what Australian farming systems could look like by 2050 and include:
- Regional ag capitals - a consolidated and technologically advanced sector, thriving and prioritising food and fibre security. Under this scenario large multinational corporations have consolidated and seamlessly integrated much of Australia's agriculture value chains. Leveraging transformative technologies, increased levels of productivity have been unlocked. New workforce opportunities have emerged, concentrated in a select few regional cities where multiple sectors are experiencing growth.
- Landscape stewardship - a forward-thinking sector embracing new opportunities and novel technologies, allowing the environment to flourish. Using the land to support the energy transition through carbon capture and the restoration of the environment is a national priority. Farming systems are resilient and productive as producers have taken advantage of a range of diverse income streams, blurring the lines between farming, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and energy and fuel production.
- Climate survival - a sector focused on climate adaptation and incremental changes allowing it to survive. Without transformative change, the agriculture sector is forced to focus on surviving rather than thriving. Producers relocate, and incrementally adapt and diversify their farming systems to offset the impacts of climate change. However, they remain uncertain about the long-term future viability of their businesses.
- System decline - a sector failing to address growing challenges and at a tipping point. The Australian agriculture sector has reached a tipping point. Delayed and fragmented decision-making has left producers facing the economic and environmental consequences of extreme weather events and biosecurity outbreaks. With only incremental advances in agritech, many farm businesses are struggling to maintain profit.
CSIRO's Ag2050 Lead Dr Rose Roche said it was important for the report to explore both positive outcomes for the agricultural sector, as well worst-case scenarios.
She encouraged any farmers reading the report to think about what will influence their farming practices moving into the future and what research from industry and government they might need.
"Our goal is to make cutting-edge scientific solutions accessible to our stakeholders to help them achieve their desired future." Dr Roche said.
"We've laid down the challenge to scientists to look at what could be the breakthrough science that could shift the dial for the sector."
CSIRO Futures' Agriculture and Food Lead Dr Katherine Wynn said the report underscored the critical need for proactive measures, and should serve as a call to action for the agricultural sector.
"The decline in farm profitability over the last two decades is a stark warning sign, with projections indicating decline by up to 50 per cent in some areas by 2050," Dr Wynn said.
"However, our research offers an optimistic outlook, and indicates Australia can achieve productive, sustainable and resilient farming systems if we act now to facilitate long-term transformative change in agricultural innovation.
"The four scenarios are designed to prompt collaborative conversations among industry, researchers, and other stakeholders to envision, deliberate, and plan strategic actions for the future of farming we aspire to achieve."
The Ag2050 Scenarios Report is the first phase of CSIRO's Ag2050 program, a four-year initiative aimed at identifying interventions, innovations, and support necessary for a productive, resilient, and sustainable future for Australian agriculture.
The Ag2050 Scenarios Report was led by CSIRO with financial and in-kind support from the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).
Paula Thompson
Paula Thompson is ACM's National Machinery and Ag Tech writer. She has been an agricultural journalist for more than 20 years. Prior to her current role, she was a reporter with the Stock Journal, covering livestock markets and the grains industry.
Paula Thompson is ACM's National Machinery and Ag Tech writer. She has been an agricultural journalist for more than 20 years. Prior to her current role, she was a reporter with the Stock Journal, covering livestock markets and the grains industry.
