![Southern Australia is in the middle of a protracted dry period with significant feed droughts emerging in the highlighted areas. Southern Australia is in the middle of a protracted dry period with significant feed droughts emerging in the highlighted areas.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/0784a306-ffcb-43f6-b448-e478888ca730.jpg/r0_0_1504_932_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
A late autumn break is likely to keep demand for fodder and feed grain strong across southern Australia until at least the end of winter.
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Increased volumes of fodder and grain have been making their way to livestock producers through the far south of the country from Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.
Jumbuk Ag consultant Colin Peace said anomalous summer rain had masked big practical rainfall deficits.
"You take a casual glance at the rainfall records and it doesn't look too bad, but those overall figures have been swelled up by summer rain that was not particularly useful," Mr Peace said.
"There was a tight spring that didn't generate a lot of feed, a brief flush in summer that was quickly killed when we got hot weather early this calendar year and then you've had a really dry autumn period," he said.
"Places like Casterton and Coleraine in south-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia are reporting historically low levels of feed and are likely to require grain and fodder for some time to come."
Given the latitudes of regions suffering the feed deficits he said it was unlikely there would be much relief until the end of winter.
"There has been no growth to now and for the next six weeks at least it gets very dark and cold and it is unlikely to spark enough grass to stop or even ease back feeding, especially when the short-term forecast has little rain over the next ten days at least."
He said destocking was an option for some, but not all producers.
"You have markets like Tasmania and southern Western Australia desperate for feed, and with a lack of processing facilities it is not a matter of simply destocking when feed gets short, so there is a lot to weigh up for people in those parts of the world."
Flexi Grain senior grain trader Sam Roache said feed grain supplies were likely to become relatively tight, with big end users from northern NSW and Queensland still competing for southern grain.
"People talk about the good season in the north, and it is set up very well for the upcoming season, but the end users will still have to find enough product to get them through until that new grain comes online," Mr Roache said.
"They have got very used to using southern grain over recent years with droughts in the north and are happy with the product and will continue with their normal buying patterns, which will mean those opportunistic southern buyers will have to compete to get hold of the grain."
"Demand from South Australia is also going to be massive, the state as a whole is experiencing some of the most significant rainfall deficits on record."
Mr Roache said that put the pressure firmly on Victoria to supply grain.
"You would imagine the southern grazing industry demand is likely to remain until at least the end of winter, it is getting late in the autumn now and with shorter days and cooler temperatures it is unlikely that enough feed will be generated to meet requirements."
"There are still good supplies of Victorian wheat, barley, which is trading at a significant discount, is tighter and you'd imagine most grain, even the weather damaged product, is likely to find a home pretty easily over coming months."
Mr Peace said on the fodder front southern Victoria and SA would be supplied first from the Wimmera and then from the Mallee, both relatively economic freightwise, but drought impacted livestock producers in other areas would have a tougher time of it.
"WA does not have a huge fodder sector while we've already seen places like King Island having to bring in feed at a high cost."
However, he said the Victorian dairy industry was relatively self-sufficent for feed at present.
"The summer rain was some use in those areas and there are reports of generally good fodder reserves."
In critical livestock producing regions in south-west Victoria, stock agents say producers are in the middle of a protracted period of feeding.
"Things have been very dry and look set to continue to stay that way, it continues a fairly difficult period that started with a poor spring, a little summer rain then a very dry autumn," said Nutrien Ag Solutions Casterton agent Rick Smith.
"We also had the interest rate rises combined with the drop in lamb prices last year so farmers aren't particularly excited about large feed bills but looks like being necessary for a while yet."
Fodder prices for cereal hay in the region have jumped from around $220 a tonne at the start of the year to around $320-350/t.
Mr Smith said many farmers were looking to arm themselves with sufficient supplies for most of winter.
"They're looking to get their hands on enough to get them through the winter, they realise from here they're unlikely to get that good autumn flush of feed they hope for."
He said while the summer rain had only provided temporary relief it had been beneficial for joining percentages.
"The ewes were in good condition over summer and we've seen some very healthy pregnancy rates, which will be good in the long run although it also means farmers have to find more feed for lambing and weaning."
At Hamilton Hugh Douglas, LMB Livestock reported a similar story.
"The south-west of the state has been missing out, conditions improve to the north and the east but people are definitely looking for additional fodder and feed grain," he said.
"The summer rain did give us a little reprieve but apart from that we've had a really sustained dry run and summer rain in our farming systems does not really go a long way compared to spring or autumn rain where you can generate some good feed."
He said most buyers of feed were finding suitable stocks relatively close by.
"There seems to be reasonable availability in the Wimmera, but certainly people are preparing to be feeding for some time yet and making sure they have supplies on hand."