Conditions across Australia are likely to remain on the dry side for the start of winter but many regions will end up with above average rainfall by the end of August according to long-term Bureau of Meteorology forecasts.
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The BOM today issued its winter outlook, with a forecast of above average rainfall across swathes of southern, central and western parts of Australia.
This will come after a below average June in many parts of the country, including the critical Murray-Darling Basin.
From then on, however, July is likely to be wetter than average across most areas north of the Murray River and average through most of Victoria, southern SA and southern WA.
Interestingly, the coastal areas suffering through a severe drought through autumn, such as Kangaroo Island in SA and King Island in Tasmania are not tipped to tick back into average rainfall even as the winter patterns sets in through the rest of the country.
A thin strip along the southern coast only has a 40pc chance of exceeding median winter rainfall, with Kangaroo Island only having a 30pc chance.
On the other hand, the odds are firmly in favour for above average rainfall in north western NSW, with the majority of the western third of the state having a 60pc chance of exceeding median rainfall, while in the far north-west the odds rise to 65pc.
Looking further ahead, the preliminary BOM estimates are for a wet September, with the odds of a wetter than median July to September rising to as high as 75pc in western NSW and eastern SA in areas north of the Riverland.
Temperature wise it is very likely to be above average over much of the country, which follows an autumn that was warmer than usual for most parts of Australia
In spite of the dry conditions in the south, heavy rain in other parts of the country meant overall preliminary BOM figures show overall national rainfall 26pc above the 1961-1990 average.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
