![ABARES is predicting a bright year ahead for most on the cropping front. Source: ABARES. ABARES is predicting a bright year ahead for most on the cropping front. Source: ABARES.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/f950644f-becb-46b7-bee4-e269a93d5a72.png/r0_0_958_825_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Official government and private forecasters are both predicting a historically large plant for the 2024-25 Australian winter crop, however there is some divergence as to total production based on growing season conditions.
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The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) this week issued its first crop report for the season.
It predicted the national plant would remain historically high at 23.6 million hectares, with solid planting conditions in Queensland and NSW bolstering the numbers.
Rabobank, in its winter crop update also issued this week, came up with a remarkably similar figure of 23.55m ha.
However, there were differences in the total amount of grain production.
ABARES, factoring in a generally favourable winter rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM, is predicting a national crop of 51.3 million tonnes.
Rabobank report author Vitor Pistoia, however, noted a tough start for Western Australia, South Australia, and western Victoria, which he said even with a mid- to late-season recovery following better rainfall due to the elevated chance of La Nina, left the Rabobank estimate at 46.3m tonnes.
The ABARES team said its estimate would be a 9 per cent year on year increase and also be 9pc above the 10-year average.
If realised, it would be the fifth biggest winter crop on record.
The forecast increase reflects expected improvements in production in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia.
In terms of specific crops, ABARES has wheat production at 29.1m tonnes and Rabobank at 27.4m tonnes.
Canola, primarily grown in the southern and western cropping regions that have had a slower start to the season, is likely to be the big loser.
ABARES has a canola crop of 5.4m tonnes while Rabobank sits at 5m tonnes.
"Nationwide, canola area is dropping because of low levels of early-season soil moisture in Western Australia and South Australia," Mr Pistoia said.
"This was quite detrimental for the canola crop, as the germination window for optimising yields falls in late April."
Conversely, the story has been excellent for pulses, reflecting good growing conditions in the northern chickpea producing region and strong international markets for both chickpeas and lentils.
"The area planted to chickpeas is growing 79 per cent in response to recent Indian tariff reductions and a good start to the season in NSW and Queensland," the ABARES report said.
ABARES is also estimating a record 885,000ha lentil plant.
Overall, it said in the crop report that a forecast increase in area planted in Queensland and New South Wales is likely to more than offset a fall in area in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
Mr Pistoia said the overall 3.6 per cent increase in plantings would favour cereal crops,with around 450,000ha less of canola year on year, while total plantings rise 961,000ha.
Grain Producers Australia chair Barry Large cautioned that there was still a lot that needed to happen before a 50 million tonne plus crop came to pass.
He said the ABARES winter crop forecasts were based on above average summer rainfall and timely autumn rainfall that continued to improve soil moisture profiles in Queensland and northern and central NSW.
But he said autumn rainfall has been lower than average across major cropping regions in western Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, where soil moisture levels have remained low.
"GPA recognises the analysis made in this ABARES report and understands that the variability in the seasonal conditions means potential mixed fortunes for Australian grain producers with continuing challenges and opportunities," he said.