A SHOCK alteration in stocks information from China has suddenly lumped an extra 150 million tonnes of corn onto the international balance sheet.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics upwardedly revised the area, yield and production of corn and rice late last month in a move that caught international markets by surprise.
Data out of China has always been regarded as opaque, with the country’s large stockpiles of grain not generally influencing markets significantly because of the unlikelihood of them ever being exported.
However, the sheer scale of this upgrade has caused some readjustments, especially in the coarse grain sector.
Australian barley prices have come off in the past fortnight by around $30-40/t.
Malcolm Bartholomaeus, Bartholomaeus Consulting, said much of this fall was attributable to the international market.
“The spread to international value hasn’t changed much, it is in track with what is happening elsewhere.”
In its latest report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lifted Chinese corn stocks to 207.49m tonnes, up 149m tonnes on the last projection prior to the Chinese data being released.
Andrew Weidemann, Grain Producers Australia, expressed cynicism at the findings.
“It comes at a time when China needs to import grain such as barley and world prices are high, you could be cynical and suggest it is a push to bring prices back.”
Market data from China is not traditionally a key driver on world markets, firstly due to concerns about its accuracy and secondly because the stocks generally remain within China and are not a factor on world grain values.