The Bureau of Meteorology have announced an "established La Nina" which modelling predicts will peak this spring.
In a climate driver update published today, the Bureau said Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have been cooling since June and are now at La Nina thresholds.
"Atmospheric indicators including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade wind strength, and equatorial cloudiness are also displaying patterns typical of a La Nina event," the update stated.
"Models indicate this La Nina event may peak during the spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023.
"La Nina events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer."
The report stated the negative Indian Ocean Dipole event was continuing.
"The IOD index has satisfied negative IOD thresholds (i.e. at or below 0.4 °C) since June, with the latest weekly value being 0.8 °C," the climate update said.
"All surveyed climate models agree that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring.
"A negative IOD event is typically associated with above average spring rainfall for much of Australia. When a La Nia and negative IOD combine, it further increases the likelihood of above average rainfall over Australia, particularly in the eastern half of the continent."
In August the Bureau upgraded the chances of a third consecutive La Nina climate event forming in the Pacific Ocean but had stopped short of officially calling it.
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