No end point to defending against foot and mouth, lumpy skin: Outlook 2023

Equally, however, they warned that not considering the lower-probability-higher-consequence scenarios around FMD and lumpy skin disease would be akin to 'smokers ignoring the risk of lung disease'.

Speaking at this week's big agriculture conference Outlook 2023, in Canberra, Department of Agriculture biosecurity people said these diseases were not just livestock industry issues but threats to the economy.

They also outlined the ways in which biosecurity risks were being amplified for Australia.

The session on preparing for animal disease incursions at Outlook, the annual conference hosted by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture Resource Economics, drew one of the largest audiences.

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Deputy secretary for biosecurity and compliance at the Department of Agriculture Chris Locke said while the public interest in FMD may have died down, his department's had not by any stretch.

Australia should take faith in the fact FMD has been kept out so far, he said.

"Yes we have to maintain heightened vigilance but we don't want to suffer the hysteria without the disease," he said.

"You can easily shift markets by getting information wrong."

Mr Locke, and senior economist in biosecurity economics at ABARES Simon Hone, spoke about how climate change, greater movement of people and goods around the world and even the rise of online shopping were fast increasing the risk of animal diseases reaching Australia.

"Climate change is introducing new threats, new pathways, changes in seasonalities so some threats that disappeared over winter no longer do and changes in the ability of diseases to spread," Mr Locke said.

"At the same time, the shift in trade and travel patterns is adding risk.

"The pandemic and war have had a pervasive effect on cargo volumes - not only are they way up but we are experiencing less predictable scheduling."

Government figures show cargo is up 42 per cent on pre-pandemic volumes and last year Australia had 2.5 million shipping containers come over the borders.

Mr Hone said the number of air cargo consignments through Australian airports had increased from 18m to 85m in the past decade.

All this equates to six million documents a year relating to incoming goods, Mr Locke said.

"When FMD first appeared in Bali, 17000 passengers a week were coming in from Indonesia, and now that number is 32000," Mr Locke said.

"Cruise ships are back online and vehicle imports are up 88pc.

"And there has been enormous growth in online shopping that has opened a whole new set of pathways for us to monitor."

Some of these changes were permanent.

"Biosecurity threats never go away," Mr Locke said.

"It's a space where you have to constantly straddle the long game of building up a system of defence while maintaining the ability to spin up quickly against an immediate threat."

He revealed authorities were starting to see increased non-compliance such as smuggling and deliberate misdeclaring and said some of these behaviours were becoming increasingly more sophisticated.

"Lots of good work has been done in managing the risk in both Indonesia and Australia in tightening up our risk controls, but that work is the new reality. It doesn't have an end point," Mr Locke said.

"There was a time when biosecurity was all about being a remote island with a strong quarantine wall around it.

"But now Australia's way of life depends on free and open flowing borders. At stake is freedom from pests and diseases which is vital for access to international markets and the sustainability of Australian agriculture."

Mr Hone said examination of existing trade certifications 'can only tell us so much' in terms of what an LSD outbreak would mean for the beef industry.

"Some people argue the most likely scenario is that chilled and frozen markets will only be affected in a limited way but even if that's right it does not necessarily follow that the risks and costs are small," he said.

"If we don't consider the lower-probability-higher-consequence scenarios we could be severely underestimating the risk presented by LSD."