AUSTRALIAN croppers will go to the well once again with an even bigger plant than last year but a return to more normal rainfall will bring back overall production.
This is the prognosis for the winter cropping season ahead from rural banking specialists Rabobank.
In its Australian Winter Crop Outlook Rabobank forecast a plant of 23.48 million hectares, with growth in wheat and barley plantings making up for a fall in canola.
This would be 0.3 per cent above last year's planting and 5pc above the long term average.
Total wheat production is flagged at 29.9m tonnes, although report authors highlighted it was only a preliminary estimate that could change rapidly according to weather conditions.
Barley production is pegged at 10.8m tonnes and canola 5.4m tonnes.
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However, report co-author Edward McGeoch said the spectre of an El Nino weather event, correlated with drier than average conditions, meant the bank was keeping a lid on yield potential, with potential for a winter crop as small as 41m tonnes if the El Nino bites hard.
"Australia's harvest potential for the upcoming season is expected to be below the recent consecutive bumper harvests," he said.
"However we could still see a decent total that would keep Australia well positioned to support global wheat needs in 2023/24."
Mr McGeoch said there had been a patchy start to the planting season, but added recent moisture had shored up prospects in NSW, Victoria and SA.
Gerry Karam, head of agribusiness at ANZ, said current preliminary forecasts, such as the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, were for a solid season in historical terms.
"ABARES is currently forecasting the wheat crop to be around 28 million tonnes, which would be down around 28 percent on the previous year but would still be the sixth biggest harvest ever," he said.
Global grain consumers will be keeping a close eye on Australian crop fortunes this year.
"The biggest question marks at the moment are around wheat production levels in both hemispheres, as well as ongoing uncertainty around Ukrainian exports."
Rabobank is estimating wheat area to rise 2.9pc on the previous year to 13.44 million hectares (11.5pc above the five-year average) with barley up 1.3pc to 4.27m ha, down 10.4pc on its five-year average. Area planted to pulses is also expected to increase on the previous year to 1.77 m ha, down 8.4pc on the five-year average.
Canola planting is forecast to be down 8.4pc on last season to 3.32m ha, although this plant will still be 21.2pc above the five-year average.
"Canola plantings have suffered as all other crops have benefited," Mr McGeoch said.
"The trend in most states - including Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria - is that canola planting is down on last year due to the pull back in prices and the drier start to the season which has seen farmers returning to cereal crops within their rotations."
The initial wheat and barley production estimates are down 24pc year on year, while canola will come back a substantial 35pc.
By state, crop plantings are expected to be up this year in Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, by 3.5pc, 3.4pc and 0.3pc respectively.
Western Australian planting is projected to be down 2.1pc and Victoria marginally down by 0.2pc.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
