Droughts are not good news, but they are a fact of life and not necessarily a bad thing, either, says Elders boss, Mark Allison.
"We tend to learn a lot about our farming and business capabilities and see a lot of innovation and efficiencies emerge from drought years," he said.
"However, it seems there's a unilateral line of thinking that dry means bad.
"We overlook developments in water efficiency, livestock management and livestock genetics that emerge from droughts - even the benefits of an enforced fallow for the country."
Fortunately, also, drought-prone El Nino years in one part of Australia were likely to be balanced by at least reasonable seasonal conditions in other regions.
Western Australia was a case in point at present.
The northern wheatbelt was too dry, the south west had been too wet and many areas in between were enjoying a "Goldilocks season".
On the east coast the story was similar with upbeat crop prospects and grazing conditions in Victoria, but northern NSW was rapidly destocking and many winter crops were not even planted, while in North Queensland the season was the best in years.
Mr Allison, the managing director of the 185-year-old farm services company, was unsure if dry and rainy season cycles were becoming notably more extreme, but said the business of agriculture was largely about "controlling what you can control".
A lot of people make the mistake of thinking the good years are going to last a bit longer than they ever do
- Mark Allison, Elders
Elders had weathered hundreds of seasonal ups and downs in its roller-coaster business history and had adapted with strategies to be ready with products and customer services for good seasons and bad.
"From my observation, a lot of people make the mistake of thinking the good years are going to last a bit longer than they ever do," he said.
"They naturally get disappointed when things change for the worse. We all do.
"Our flawed thinking tends to make the same assumptions about commodity prices, too.
"We expect grain and livestock markets to stay strong, or hope that they'll only drop 20 per cent.
"Then you'll get a sudden change in the market, like this year, and it's a lot worse than everybody was expecting."
Mr Allison told the recent NSW Farm Writers' Association's AgQuip Agribuzz event the reality in Australia was that El Nino events were "the reality", not unlucky episodes.
While farmers and farm sector businesses did not like them "we also know they have bad and good consequences".
For Elders the bad consequences started last summer as share market investors grew jittery about agriculture's bumper run of good seasons and high prices turning sour and eroding the company's earnings.
Elders' share price has subsequently halved to less than $6 in the past year as livestock markets have fallen and dry conditions hit parts of the sector.
The other reality was the rebound into good years and the opportunities they presented "probably wouldn't be nearly so strong if we didn't go through those tough seasons" and learn to adapt with them.
For the summer ahead, he remained optimistic about a "mostly good" outlook for many areas, particularly prospects for summer croppers.
Ample stored water reserves generally augured well for irrigated grain and cotton crops, while soil moisture levels were still adequate enough in many areas to consider dryland crops if planting rain fell at the right time.
"Destocking rates and prices are concerning, but you can only control what you can control," he said.
Farming's fast emerging digital opportunity was something the industry could control to deliver big productivity and efficiency gains, so long as infrastructure was available to support a revolution in 'internet of things' technology.
"Unfortunately, I'm worried our physical digital ecosystem is not equipped well enough for the next productivity leap on farms," Mr Allison said
Everything from better satellite access to having enough skilled technical people in the bush to work with farmers was needed.
A national offensive was also needed to recognise the strategic advantages of a fairer share of health, childcare and education services for regional communities to make sure agribusinesses and farmers could retain the skills needed in their regions.
Elders' had even considered getting involved in childcare services.
"Obviously, it's not our core business strength - and we won't be running childcare centres - but it's one of those critical components which our sector depends on and we're keen to encourage some solutions."
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
