Milk pool may be stabilising, January dairy production figures show

There was a 9.4 per cent increase on January 2023, with a 6.1pc rise in production for the year to date.

Nationally there's been a 4.9pc jump in production, compared with January 2023, with the year-to-date figure up 2.5pc.

In Victoria production was up 5.7pc on 12 months ago, mirroring the rising trend from late last year.

Dairy Australia analysis and insights manager Eliza Redfern said the increases in January were against a backdrop of lower comparable figures for last season.

"Better than expected conditions, namely timely rainfall and great pasture conditions in the southern regions, have contributed to the rise," Ms Redfern said.

"However, the wet weather over parts of Queensland has put a dent in that state's production, and while conditions are much drier in south-west Western Australia, the region continues to record production growth."

Ever Ag Insights global insights director Jo Bills said it was fair to say northern Victoria was still recovering from last year's floods, with January 2024 figures down 2pc on January two years ago.

"I think, more generally, Victorian farmers are taking advantage of a good milk price and better than expected seasonal conditions," she said.

"Soil moisture and water availability is still very good, culling numbers are down 14pc for the year to date - reflecting both the good conditions for dairy and the very ordinary beef prices that prevailed through 2023."

Milk production has continued to steadily increase in Victoria, with 24,164 million litres for January, or 1.8pc, for the year since July 1, 2023.

It comes at a time when the Australian Dairy Conference, in Melbourne, was told the shrinking milk pool was putting pressure on exports.

In Victoria, Gippsland saw a year-on-year increase of 5.7pc and 3.4pc for the year-to-date, while in the north production jumped 8.9pc on January last year and 2.6pc so far this season.

Only western Victoria saw a decrease in production so far this season - down -0.6pc.

Dairy Farmers Victoria president Mark Billing, Colac, Vic, said from a seasonal perspective, conditions had been more favourable.

"I think the production figures are representative with what's going on with the climate and a reasonably strong milk price," Mr Billing said.

It appeared the milk pool was stabilising.

"It's positive - we are not seeing a slide," he said.

In the north, the production increase reflected low temporary water prices, with good availability, and the subsequent growth in cropping, he said.

"If our milk prices are maintained at the levels they are now, and inputs become a bit more manageable, I'm pretty confident the milk pool can be maintained, if not increased, over the next 12 months," he said.

United Dairyfarmers of Victoria president Winslow's Bernie Free said the west had dried off, in January, as was expected.

"February is reasonably dry as well, it's always a concern when production is going down, but in a tight milk pool, it can only go well for dairy farmers," he said.

National year-on-year figures reflected floods in northern NSW and Queensland, Mr Free said.

"Northern Victoria has probably had a better summer than we have," he said.

Moyarra, Gippsland, Vic, farmer Brian Corr intends milking a herd of 600 crossbreds this year.

He said while the rainfall hadn't been as high, it had come at the right time.

"We had a pretty dry calving, the rain came at the end of calving - most farmers were able to put their cows on grass through spring and harvest a lot of silage," he said.

As it was a relatively dry winter, cattle had not damaged pastures, so the quality of the feed was good, he said.

"The amount of rainfall for the year, hasn't been good, but it came at the right time.

"We have ended up selling some of our silage, because we made a heap - it's pretty unusual, last year we were buying silage, this year we sold some."

The country had dried off in the last month, "we've had next to no rain".

"That's not an issue, I am quite happy for it to dry off properly, that way we should get a slightly drier winter, because we are not half water-logged going into winter," he said.