Interest rates may have gone into a holding pattern but agribusiness bankers are giving the strong impression they don't expect a rate drop for another nine months, or maybe longer.
Bankers also see the dollar losing some of its export friendliness, gaining about US5 cents during 2024, despite some downward movements so far this year.
While the new year view from many finance commentators had tipped interest rate cuts by mid-2024, or soon after, this month's feedback from the Reserve Bank of Australia highlighted how economic growth had slowed dramatically.
As the RBA held its benchmark cash rate at 4.35 per cent for the fifth consecutive month, it said even though quarterly inflation (currently above 4pc) was still moderating, it was unlikely to fall below 3pc until 2025.
Inflation was not expected to sustainably reach the midpoint of its target range for another two years,
The central bank said the interest rate path to best ensure inflation returned to target in a reasonable time frame "remained uncertain".
In fact, the RBA board was "not ruling anything in or out", prompting speculation another rate rise may still be on the cards if inflation did not shrink enough.
ANZ Banking Group's autumn agribusiness research report has forecast inflation slipping to 3pc in the final quarter of this year.
However, it believed the RBA would be slow to change its rhetoric about rate cuts and the risk of inflation accelerating again, or not falling far enough.
ANZ suggested this year's tax cuts, wage growth and reduced inflation would give the Reserve Bank enough scope to wait until November before dropping its cash rate.
In the meantime, however, Australia's $120 billion farm debt was attracting significant costs in this new rate environment, limiting potential farm profitability.
NAB has also forecast a first rate cut in November, and anticipated a gradual cutting cycle next year to take the RBA cash rate to about 3.1 by late 2025, while Rabobank more cautiously predicted 3.85pc throughout next year.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia was a little more optimistic, expecting an easing cycle to start in September with 75 basis points being trimmed off the RBA rate by the end 2024 and a further 75bp of easing in 2025.
Westpac's chief economist and former RBA economics assistant governor, Luci Ellis, told this month's agricultural Outlook 2024 conference the bank was looking towards a cash rate about 3.85pc by year's end, dropping to 3.1pc in 2025.
She believed inflation would likely remain about 3.2pc in December and only dip to 2.8pc next year.
Westpac expected the Australian dollar to climb to average about US70c by year's end and US73c next year, similar to Rabobank, which has tipped US70c by early 2025 and a small interest rate cut in November to 4.1pc.
National farm sector forecaster the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences has banked on the dollar averaging US66c this financial year, climbing to U69c in 2024-25 and averaging US75c by 2028-29.
Rabobank senior strategist, Ben Picton, believed the RBA was keeping its options open on rate cuts because most of the progress made on lowering inflation had so far been achieved with significant help from overseas movements, while home-grown inflationary pressures remained stubborn.
Rabobank's global economics and market research division has even argued a valid case for an Australian rate rise this year still existed, although it expected the RBA would seek to emulate cuts by peer central banks, moving to 3.85pc for much of 2025.
Mr Picton said the risk was that inflation generated at home may fail to come down fast enough as any helpful reduction in overseas inflation may fade during 2024, particularly if shipping cost rises and disruptions were ongoing in the Red Sea.
"Our analysts in Europe believe the Red Sea disruption will add up to 1.8 percentage points to inflation, depending on how long it persists, although the effect here would likely be less," he said.
Meanwhile, Rabobank's autumn outlook also noted global fertiliser demand was relatively subdued with northern hemisphere prices not rising as usual at this time of the year, and potentially being good news fro Australian croppers.
In the first two months of 2024 the Moroccan DAP phosphate reference price fell $US15/tonne, while China appeared to have excessive supplies of DAP and MAP.
Another sign of fertiliser oversupply was Mosaic's decision to shut its Colonsay potash mine in Canada, which produced almost 3pc of global export volumes.
The nitrogen sector was also facing lacklustre demand, with hand to mouth buying trends being influenced by bearish global grain market prospects subduing farmer orders for inputs.