Indo live-ex orders come in but cattle supply in the north is super tight

Demand is still at a level very much below what would be expected for this time of year but even so, exporters are finding it tough going to source what they need.

In Queensland, many producers are hanging onto stock, using plentiful feed to add kilograms with the view that either the live trade will take them heavier at decent rates or the domestic market will continue to hold strength.

In the Northern Territory, supply is very tight on the back of three poor wet seasons and the option of selling into strong southern markets.

Some live-ex suppliers are receiving daily phone calls from buyers and prices on offer have reached $4.70 a kilogram for 250 to 350kg steers ex-Darwin and $4.40 ex-Charters Towers.

That might not be the peaks in excess of $5 that were reached earlier this year but it is well above the longer term average.

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Elders Katherine agent Paul McCormack said there was definitely a level of exporter nervousness about supply going forward.

"There has been a big incentive for NT operators to sell weaners into Queensland feedlots and to backgrounders and that has removed cattle from the live-ex supply pool," he said.

"That's on top of low numbers generally due to poor seasons.

"We are now towards the end of mustering season and coming to a period where traditionally low numbers are available anyway.

"There is certainly no abundance of cattle needing to be marketed. It has been very fortunate that the hiatus with the Indo trade due to the FMD situation came at a time when we weren't bursting at the seams with cattle."

For the month of August, volumes of feeder cattle to all destinations were in the red, some back by 100pc.

Episode 3 analysts reported a meager 21,697 head went to Indonesia, which represents levels that are 63pc below the average sent to Indonesia in August, according to the last five years of trade data.

President of the Queensland Live Exporters Association Greg Pankhurst said the trade with Vietnam was also very soft, with plenty of cattle flooding into that market from Laos and Thailand.

"In Indonesia, stocks of cattle on feed are low - most feedlots are operating at 50 to 60pc below capacity," he said.

"Everyone has vaccines now, which gives some certainty, although there is still exposure for 10 to 14 days until the imported cattle get immunity which presents some risk.

"They are looking to refill feedlots but there is a price point where it gets too challenging."

Mr Pankhurst said there was no great shortage of beef in Indonesia. Cattle had been held on feed longer than normal due to FMD and were now flowing through. Secondly, Australian live cattle supply only 15pc of total beef consumed in Indonesia.

He felt the lack of available cattle in Australia would keep export volumes low for some time but said longer-term the trade was solid.

No Indonesian feedlots had exited the business due to the FMD and lumpy skin disease outbreaks, he said.

The herd rebuild in the Territory would not start until a decent wet season arrived, with pastoralists 'really sweating' on a turn in seasonal fortunes this year, live cattle supplier Brad Inglis said.

The Inglis family run 7500 head of Brahmans at Sturt Plains, south of Katherine.

The average 580mm they receive annually has not eventuated for three years. In 2019 only 100mm fell and last year was the best result with only 200mm.

"A lot of people who were running big numbers were forced to sell. A lot of Territory cows went to southern processors and that is affecting numbers coming through now," Mr Inglis said.

"It has been a bit of a reality check - a lesson the wet season isn't a given."

But pastoralists were investing in infrastructure and optimistic about the cattle business long-term, he said.

Queensland producer Peter Hall, Cloncurry, said exporters were chasing cattle into Western Queensland for Darwin boats now and the money on offer for Brahman steers was comparable to what feedlots were offering and saleyard money.

However, much of the Queensland country that live-ex supply comes out of still had green feed and producers were opting to hang onto their stock until they were a bit heavier.

"The heavier live-ex price is only 20c behind so there's more margin in putting on more weight," Mr Hall said.