AN enormous amount of foot and mouth and lumpy skin disease grunt work is being done behind the scenes on everything from lining up the ducks on trade protocol negotiations to modeling the most likely landing location of an incursion.
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Government animal disease experts say it is a credit to Australia's biosecurity systems that the country remains free of the two threats but that does not mean we should not still be working every day on preparing for the worst.
New government economist analysis on the breakdown of what an FMD outbreak would cost agricultural exports paints a sober picture.
It shows close to $10b in beef exports, $4.8b in sheep meat, $3.8b in dairy and $3.6b in wool would be wiped out.
National Farmers Federation chief executive officer Tony Maher said that impact would be immediate.
It was also probably a conservative estimate, he said.
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"Our red meat trade-related agenda has been hard fought in what is an incredibly competitive global market," Mr Maher said.
"Australia's reputation in the marketplace is incredibly valuable. This has driven our market access but also market segmentation and that has materialised in premiums.
"And that is largely on the back of being recognised as being free from FMD without vaccination."
Long battle
What is now starting to emerge is that the length of time Australia might be locked out of export markets will be a key driver of the economic impact of an FMD incursion.
Meat & Livestock Australia's manager for global trade development Tim Ryan said time frames around market re-entry were a big unknown - hugely variable between markets and heavily dependent on the context of any incursion.
Regaining World Organisation of Animal Health freedom recognition would take a minimum 90 days, he said.
"We would then require many of our importing markets to recognise that disease-free status again," he said.
The United States, as an example, has taken between 47 and 560 days, past WOHA recognition, to acknowledge FMD-free status where outbreaks have occurred in other countries.
An FMD outbreak in Ireland was brought under control within two days but it was a further 181 days before Ireland regained its disease-free status.
Markets can be very unforgiving, Red Meat Advisory Council chair John McKillop said.
Acting first assistant secretary exports and veterinary services division with the federal government agriculture department Tom Black said there was no doubt the negotiations to get back into markets would be difficult.
"There will be processes we have to work through but then it will come down to bilateral discussions and we are under no illusions there will be challenges," he said.
"Who knows what trading partners might want from us in return.
"It will be much better to stay free then end up in the space of having to negotiate our way back into markets.
"We also understand trading partners might react differently to what we anticipate and might place unexpected bans on other exports as well.
"For some commodities there might be some left-of-field reaction."
FMD status
Mr Ryan explained that 'FMD free without vaccination' status - which Australia currently has - was the top shelf status.
The vast majority of global meat trade comes from countries with this top status. Major meat players the US, Australia and Europe have the status.
For beef, about half the global trade comes from countries with the top FMD status. For sheep meat, it is 96 per cent, reflecting that the biggest exporters are NZ and Australia. For pork, it is 86pc.
South American beef exporters and Russia have the 'freedom with vaccination' status. They don't have access to many of the premium markets that Australia does.
Australia earns a premium thanks to its FMD-free without vaccination status.
For example, average export prices of frozen beef into the Middle East - a region where most beef exporters are active - show Australian product currently commands $9 per kilogram, compared to Argentina and Uruguay at just below $7 and India at below $3.
"There is trade that can occur outside of the status, either under a zoning program, vaccination program or even an endorsed official control program," Mr Ryan said.
"However, that would likely occur following vigorous and protracted negotiations.
"It can't be turned on overnight.
"So, again, it's critical for Australia to maintain the status of FMD free without vaccination at all costs.
"Control costs of addressing the disease are dwarfed by the impact on export revenue across agriculture products."
Mr Ryan said much of these trade implications would apply to LSD as well, albeit not as severe.
Shan Goodwin
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
