Picking has begun in most cotton growing regions with positive signs emerging that the flooding and farm damage late last year may not have been as devastating as first feared.
Rain forecast for NSW and southern Queensland could put a short pause on picking but most growers say conditions have been generally favorable after a tough start for many.
While the impact of wet weather varied from region to region, some farmers were forced to scale back their plantings, particularly in the Southern Valleys and Macquarie where farmers couldn't get on their paddocks and missed their window of opportunity.
Cotton Australia CEO Adam Kay said with favourable conditions across most of the 65 plus local government areas growing cotton this year, growers are reassessing yield and quality.
"To appreciate where we are now you first have to acknowledge where we were," he said.
"Last November every inland river catchment was full or flooded from the Queensland border to Victoria and around 100 active warnings were in place."
Mr Kay said Cotton Australia was forecasting a crop around 5.2 million bales for 2023.
"This will result in around 1.2 million tonnes of fibre and 1.4 million tonnes of cottonseed," he said.
"Every bale of cotton and every tonne of seed will be sold, given the demand for the Australian grown product.
One area impacted by the wet weather was the Southern Valleys where defoliation is just starting after late planting.
Wet weather at planting stage resulted in a one-third reduction in crop planted.
Picking has just started north of Warren after farmers reported a 30 per cent crop reduction due to the well-above rain recorded in 2022.
However, Cotton Australia has reported that quality is expected to be good, and above average temperatures in February and March have provided very good boll filling conditions for crops.
In the Gwydir Valley early dryland is being picked and yielding up to seven bales per hectare with around double that for irrigated cotton.
Cotton Australia reports that the cotton not impacted by spray drift is yielding around 14 bales per hectare and about 15pc is picked at this stage in the Gwydir with 30pc picked in the lower Namoi and 5pc in the Upper Namoi.
Picking has just started in Walgett and Bourke with yield predictions difficult, particularly in drift impacted areas.
In the MacIntyre Valley, 44,000ha irrigated cotton and 8,000ha dryland has been planted with 15pc picked already and activity hitting full capacity this week.
While the dryland cotton could have used some late rain, the irrigated is looking very positive. While the gins are not yet operational the cotton being delivered is looking to be high quality.
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Picking is in full swing in St George, Dirranbandi and Mungindi with the majority of the early crop to be picked over the next two weeks and later crops a month away from picking.
Growers are reporting good yields and quality and while early indications are good, ginners are just starting so there are no results to confirm the optimistic outlook at this stage.
On the Darling Downs growers are up to the defoliation stage of the season mostly and a few have started picking the early planted fields.
Due to full storages and full water allocations at the beginning of the season as well as a full soil moisture profile, larger than average areas were planted, around 75pc irrigated fields and 25pc rain-fed.
Gins are predicting they will start full operation in the second week of May.
In the Lockyer Valley, ten growers have planted approximately 1500ha of cotton and that's up from previous years driven by price, crop rotation practices and growing conditions.
At Maryborough three growers have planted 500ha.
In the Central Highlands both gins are operational with the cotton clean but no yield information yet, however early crops are reporting up to 13 bales per ha irrigated.
A number of growers are still irrigating and will push through until June picking.
Mr Kay said despite talk of drying conditions, most regions currently have good water storages.
"The Murray Darling Basin Authority reports that the major water storages in the basin are at around 90pc capacity meaning that the outlook for the next season is positive as well.
"It's good news for local communities because figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2021 Agricultural Census revealed that cotton was grown in 65 local government areas with more than 75pc of cotton grower business expenses spent locally."
