Contrary to popular belief, West Australian unease about the looming shutdown of the live sheep export trade is unlikely to be adding much momentum to sliding eastern sheep markets, for the time being.
However, eastern Australia should brace for millions of WA sheep flooding the market if the much-valued trade is banned by Canberra in coming years.
Elders' zone livestock and wool manager in WA, Dean Hubbard, has estimated the short term impact of a live export ban could involve up to 2 million sheep and lambs trucked across the Nullabor to be processed in southern eastern Australian meatworks, for at least a couple of years.
Although live exports account for only about 20 per cent of WA's total finished sheep trade, farmer anxiety about the local meat sector's ability to viably absorb the extra numbers after a boat trade ban has surged in the past year.
Producers have already been spooked by long wait times to get finished lambs consigned to meatworks and a buildup in unsold stock.
Drying seasonal conditions in some areas and slumping saleyard prices down to $20 and $40 a head for sheep not meeting buyers' benchmarks have only compounded their concerns.
Most stock handled by WA processors are consigned directly to meatworks, but many producers without processor contracts fear they cannot afford to sell or even carry sheep until they can get a decent saleyard price.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a rise in live export orders leaving WA given sheep values are now about half what they were a year ago
- Dean Hubbard, Elders.
The downbeat mood has been somewhat at odds with the past year's rising live export numbers and increased processor throughput.
Mr Hubbard said the new Middle East shipping season from mid-September was also almost certain to see the reviving live-ex buyer demand continue.
"Exporters are already planning their first shipments and I wouldn't be surprised to see a rise in live export orders leaving WA given sheep values are now about half what they were a year ago," he said.
Although well down on the 1 million exported by ship from various Australian ports four years ago, live sheep exports in 2022-23 totalled almost 640,000 (mostly from WA), according to industry research body, LiveCorp.
That volume was well up on the 478,800 shipped the previous financial year and above the 608,000 sent on boats in 2020-21 when soaring Australian livestock prices and pandemic lockdowns and freight disruptions discouraged live shipments.
Processor demand lifts
At the same time, contrary to what many believed, Mr Hubbard said WA processors handled about 18pc more sheep and lambs over the 12 months to July.
"People have been pretty quick to judge processors for not taking enough stock, but I think they're doing a pretty good job," he said.
"It's also quite possible that in six or eight months from now we could be looking at a much better picture if a jump in live exports reduces some of the market pressure and overseas meat export prices improve.
"Unfortunately, at the moment there's a lot of angst and uncertainty on both sides of the country - producers want more clarity on where the market is heading."
He said the solution to reviving WA confidence was not as simple as building more meat plants to suddenly absorb more sheep.
"We already have nine processors (slaughtering up to 2.5m head annually)," Mr Hubbard said.
"We need time to establish more overseas markets - and retain plenty of sheep to maintain export supply consistency."
In the short term, at least, the live trade was essential in absorbing extra volumes and providing a market option for producers.
Stampede to east
However, if the federal government pushed a speedy live trade shutdown agenda the impact would be savage, and "it will spread to the east rapidly".
"In the short term there will be a lot of extra sheep looking for a processor - maybe 1m to 2m moving east, where there are 19 processors in Victoria alone."
Mr Hubbard said a lengthy run of good to excellent cropping seasons and grain markets in WA had already left fewer wheatbelt farmers feeling sheep were attractive for their enterprise mix and flock numbers had been scaling back for quite a few years in some areas.
"But it's not a mass exodus and I think most will tend to want to stay in the game, but maybe with fewer numbers than they've accumulated recently.
"I'm not actually convinced that the flock in WA is as big as some people are worried about, but it is a reality that people are worried about the sheep industry's prospects."
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
