Rabobank Analysts review Australian wine oversupply

The Wine Quarterly Q3 2023 report stated that Chinese anti-dumping tariffs placed on Australian wine imports had a large impact on oversupply, causing disruptions to the industry.

As a result, over the last two years Australian wine export value decreased by 33 per cent .

Report author and Rabobank research associate analyst Pia Piggott said when Chinese anti-dumping tariffs were introduced in 2020, to 2021, wine export value decreased by about one third.

"Unluckily, the tariff coincided with an exceptional growing season," Ms Piggott said,

"And Australia's largest crush on record."

Alongside the tariffs, wine consumption in China had also decreased in recent years.

"Chinese consumers began transitioning away from wine as part of a broader decline in alcohol consumption on a per capita basis, however declines were greater for wine than beer and spirits," Ms Piggot said.

Notably for producers, the report said that it was likely the local wine market would remain oversupplied, resulting in reduced production and less acreage being used for vineyards.

"For wineries, particularly those selling commercial wine, stocks will remain high for some time as businesses slowly work through selling inventory," Ms Piggot said.

"While some brands have increased bulk shipments and been able to heavily discount stock, this will need to continue for some time to rebalance the market."