Lamb production to keep hitting new heights while wool wanes

According to the latest outlook from Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics sheepmeat production volumes are forecast to rise by two per cent to 937,000 tonnes in 2024-25, driven by heightened slaughter in Western Australia.

Meanwhile export volumes are expected to remain high at 650,000 tonnes, compared to 648,000 tonnes in the 2023-24 financial year.

Lamb slaughter volumes are expected to increase by 3pc to 28.0 million head in 2024-25 from 27.3 million head in 2023-24, while sheep slaughter rates are expected to fall by 2pc to 10.2 million head due to higher slaughter rates over the past year having an impact on mutton availability.

According to ABARES, elevated export prices are expected to incentivise processors to expand slaughter capacity, especially in early 2025 with an expected peak in US demand.

Growth in world demand for sheepmeat is also expected to outpace growth in supply, driving prices upwards.

Agriculture minister Murray Watt has talked up the rising sheepmeat exports, as conversation ramps up about how to build domestic processing ahead of the 2028 ban of live sheep exports by sea.

"Here in Australia, we produce some of the best lamb and mutton in the world, we've always known that," he said.

"But now the rest of the world, including key emerging markets like the Middle East, are figuring that out too.

"The more sheepmeat we export, means we can create more jobs onshore in the meat processing sector and see more economic benefits flow through our regional communities."

Despite the impending live sheep ban, live sheep exports are forecast to rise by 21pc to 690,000 head in 2024-25 from 570,000 head in 2023-24, reflecting increased sheep turn-off and the supply of sheep available for export in Western Australia.

With the Australian sheep flock expected to decrease by 3pc to 68.5 million head, wool production is forecast to fall by 1pc to 413,000 tonnes.

Improved seasonal conditions are likely to see marginal improvements in wool yields, partially offsetting the drop in the flock size.

Wool export volumes are forecast to fall slightly to 424,000 tonnes reflecting the lower production and lower wool inventories.