OVERNIGHT shutdowns of key Australian agriculture export markets, weather forecasts that predict half a dozen natural disasters in the one summer and the day when antibiotic resistance means routine surgeries are no longer available.
This is part of what the future might look like, megatrend analysis is predicting, but the line of sight as to what is coming in the decades ahead is not all dire.
Powerful innovation will transform jobs and create wealth, artificial intelligence will help us to out think bushfires, accelerate vaccine development and predict drought and the next wave of digital innovation will generate $10 to $15 trillion globally.
The once-in-a-decade analysis from CSIRO which identifies seven global megatrends that hold the key to the challenges and opportunities ahead is the most downloaded report in the history of the national science agency.
Since the 2022 version was released in July, it has reached an audience of more than 20 million.
With an outlook to 2042, the report, called Our Future World, revisits CSIRO's ground-breaking 2012 report of the same name, exploring the geopolitical, economic, social, technological and environmental forces unfolding around the world, predicting their likely impact on Australia's people, businesses and governments.
CSIRO principal Dr Stefan Hajkowicz said megatrend work was critical to the decisions those in agriculture were making every day.
Speaking at the Australian Meat Processor Corporation conference in Melbourne last week, Dr Hajkowicz used the analogy of an ocean rip to explain megatrend work.
Rips kill far more people than anything else at the beach. If not anticipated they are harrowing, but if understood and read correctly they are powerful forces that can take a surfer to where they want to be quickly and effortlessly.
For the red meat industry, strategic foresight can offer up opportunities for the prepared, he said.
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Climate change is top of the megatrend list, and Dr Hajkowicz said it was now a lived reality. The patterns are unambiguous. Natural disasters are expected to cost the Australian economy almost three times more in 2050 than in 2017.
Heatwaves in Australia could be more than 85 per cent more frequent and last up to a month if global temperatures rise between 1.5 and 3 degrees Celsius.
Building resilience to extreme weather events will be critical over the coming decade, Dr Hajkowicz said.
The second megatrend is called 'leaner, cleaner and greener' and focuses on the increased focus on solutions to resource constraints through synthetic biology, alternative proteins, advanced recycling and the net-zero energy transition. By 2025, renewables are expected to surpass coal as the primary energy source.
Thirdly, CSIRO says there is now a burning platform to respond to health risks.
COVID-19 would not be a one-off, Dr Hajkowicz said.
"We are shifting towards a heightened pandemic risk environment, most of them zoonotic diseases," he said.
"In saying that, our ability to detect, monitor and create vaccines is way better than it has been."
At the same time, antimicrobial drug resistance already kills more people than HIV and malaria combined, he said, and there were limited solutions right now to the post antibiotic era.
"One of driving factors is use of antibiotics in livestock," Dr Hajkowicz said.
"This use differs enormously across nations. China, for example, uses a very large amount of antibiotics to produce a kilogram of food."
Geopolitical shifts, meanwhile, was disrupting global trade and tensions are growing.
While the global economy shrank in 2020, the global military spend reached an all-time high of $2.9 trillion and Australia saw a 13 per cent increase in cybercrime.
"One of the risks red meat exporters have to factor in is the possibility of a sudden shutdown to a market," Dr Hajkowicz said.
"Also, all of things we import can be at risk. Well over a third of our imports come through the South China sea.
"If that shuts down, we have big issues. For example, more than 90pc of the medicines we consume in Australia are made offshore, mostly in India and China.
"No insulin is made in Australia and we almost ran out of Panadol at the beginning of the pandemic."
The other megatrends include booming digitisation, an explosion in AI and a strong consumer and citizen push for decision makers to consider trust, transparency, fairness and environmental and social governance.
"It's true that 80pc of what you hear about AI is hype but the other 20pc is enough to change your world," Dr Hajkowicz said.
"It will be a significant enabler."
Shan Goodwin
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
