ABARES tips record ag exports despite production value slipping

However, rising farm input costs, stabilising livestock restocker activity and, possibly, too much rain in some areas have dampened forecasts for the total value of farm production, leaving farmgate output likely to lag last year by about four per cent.

While another bumper cropping season is still on the radar, the gross value of agricultural production is expected to dip to $81.8b - down from the record $85.3b in 2021-22 - says the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences.

The harvest is still forecast to be a near-record affair, reflecting good soil moisture conditions and a wetter than average spring outlook, while high grain prices are expected to persist because global grain supplies continue to be tight.

The total value of livestock production turnover is set to be similar to 2021-22 as good seasons continue helping herd and flock numbers breed up towards pre-drought levels, while restocking demand eases and saleyard price follow suit.

After a winter when eastern states croppers struggled to plant on time, the likelihood of a third summer of wetter than average La Nina weather conditions is now tipped to trigger localised flooding, livestock losses and further crop downgrades, according to ABARES latest agricultural commodities outlook report.

The chance of three consecutive years of wet La Nina weather patterns only arises roughly once in every three decades.

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However, on the whole the exceptional growing conditions and high global prices continued to benefit Australian agricultural production and exports, said ABARES executive director, Dr Jared Greenville.

After accounting for the impact of inflation on farm export earnings, the national forecast determined this year would see export values reach almost 50pc above a decade ago.

A significant carry-over of cotton exports from last financial year was expected to help push the current year's exports to a record $7b, making it the third most valuable commodity shipped offshore after wheat ($11.7b) and beef ($10.2b).

"Harvesting delays mean most of the bumper 2021-22 cotton crop will be exported during 2022-23," Dr Greenville said.

"It's the first time our agricultural exports are expected to exceed $70b, showing the ability of our farmers to navigate considerable global economic uncertainty and to make a strong contribution to global food supplies."

He said the overall gross value forecast forecast for farm production of $81.8b showed agriculture was performing strongly.

Cropping led the way, but meat production was also rebounding.

"Winter crop prospects in Australia are looking very promising at the beginning of spring - we're forecasting a 55.5 million tonne harvest," Dr Greenville said.

ABARES tippped near record levels of wheat production at 32m tonnes and canola at 6.6m tonnes, also just shy of last year's record.

Barley production has also been strong and is forecast to reach 12.3m tonnes - the fourth largest crop on record.

Summer crops plantings were forecast to be well above average, too, supported by available soil moisture and significant areas of land previously left fallow during winter.

However, global inflation and rising costs of farm inputs such as fertiliser, fuel, electricity and labour could cloud outlook for demand and farm incomes.

ABARES' forecast also factored in tapering global growth.

"Widespread inflation and a sluggish Chinese economy are the main watchpoints," Dr Greenville said.

"Global food and fertiliser prices remain very high despite falling from peaks earlier in 2022.

"The World Bank expects high global food prices through to the end of 2024."

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