State by state: When will new season lambs hit their heights?

And according to a recent Mecardo analysis, while lamb throughput has tracked ahead of last year, data has revealed there is still about 230,000 extra meat lambs expected to be sold before the end of October.

Not surprisingly, it is the wet weather that is weighing heavily on the timing of the new season lamb supply heights for most states.

In fact, new season lambs are running six weeks later than normal due to the unusually wet season with this week's forecasted falls across many sheep producing parts of the country likely to impact supply yet again.

The latest data from the Meat and Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation producer survey reported as of June 30 there were close to 7.6 million lambs expected to be sold during the following four months.

So, where is the new season lamb industry up to?

MLA's senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said supply peaks of new season lambs is expected to occur at different times across the different states over the next three months.

"With continued wet weather impacting lamb performance and transport capacity, supply peaks during the 2022 spring flush appear to be occurring significantly later," Mr Atkinson said.

Also weighing on supply performance was transport issues, a number of contracted lambs sold from farm-gate and a run of short selling weeks, he said.

"These factors are contributing to lower weekly highs of new season lambs year-on-year across all states except WA and show a trend of tightening spring flush volumes, despite slaughter outperforming the past two years," Mr Atkinson said.

"Producers' capacity to transport lambs off-farm at finished quality and weight will determine when they hit the market and as a result, the price performance of lambs moving forward."

Updated figures for the week ending October 7 revealed NSW new season lamb yardings were 53 per cent above the three-year average, equating to 10, 950 lambs.

When comparing years, in 2020 new season lamb supply peaked during the second week of October with 96,000 head and in 2021 it found its highest point during the third week of October at 64,250 head.

"When coupled with with current seasonal conditions and wet weather hampering transport access as well as the finished quality of lambs, this data indicates NSW's 2022 supply peak will occur later than the previous two years," Mr Atkinson said.

Victorian supply for the first week in October was spot on the three-year average and has increased by a massive 188 per cent since the beginning of September.

Mr Atkinson said the timing of weekly seasonal peaks in the supply of new season lambs in Victoria over the past three years has remained the same.

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"Supply in Victoria has been consistently peaking in the second and third weeks of December since 2019," he said.

"The state's new season supply of lambs is currently firm on year-ago levels, however, compared to the same week in 2020, it is softer by 46pc or 16,600 head."

South Australia's new season lamb yardings are currently operating 30pc higher than the three-year average.

And compared with the first week of September, new season lamb supply has risen by 430pc or 7700 head in SA as seasonal conditions remain more favourable.

"Recent sharp uplifts in supply since early September and favourable seasonal conditions are delivering larger volumes of lambs in the state," Mr Atkinson said.

"This may indicate strong saleyard supply moving towards the end of 2022."

He said dry conditions across SA in 2021 meant the states' supply peak occurred four weeks earlier than the previous two years of 2019 and 2020.

During 2019 and 2020, volumes peaked in the third week of November - but in 2021, this peak was reached in the third week of October.

For Western Australia the story is vastly different with current weekly new season lamb supply operating 10pc below the three-year average.

WA's peak is expected later in the year, similar to 2021.

"WA's spring flush peak of 16,450 lambs during December 2021 was the highest since 2018 and with favourable rainfall patterns supporting improved lambing percentages in WA during 2022, a large cohort of new season lambs may be expected for the remainder of 2022," Mr Atkinson said.

Mr Atkinson said expected continued logistical challenges and lamb performance will dictate supply fluctuations for each state through to the end of 2022.

Looking forward, as supply starts to increase in numbers, it is likely to override any increase in competition from processors and keep the price trajectory headed south.