A significant amount of lambs wont be sold until 2023 as the industry is reined in on the back of unfavourable seasons and shearing limitations.
This is according to industry specialists who said the constraints on the industry is facing will have a flow on effect for months.
Brakes on shearing capacities, market access and feed quality are magnifying the issue.
Southeast regional wool and livestock with Nutrien Ag Solutions Adam Mountjoy said industry should be witnessing a tsunami of lambs coming to market, but most will be held off until January 2023, or even later.
"We have to resign to the fact that a lot of those lambs will be sold in 2023," Mr Mountjoy said.
"Lambs struggled earlier in the year from the wet and they are not getting a break in the weather now.
"This will push numbers back considerably in the selling season."
However Nutrien Ag Solutions Wagga Wagga livestock manager Peter Cabot said 60,000 suckers have been sold through Wagga Wagga saleyards over the last two weeks,
"Wagga has essentially sold 140,00 sheep and lambs over two weeks. but we still expect there will be lambs held over until 2023," he said.
"The big problem producers will have in keeping lambs is they are having a lot of trouble getting shearers.
"The shearer shortage has become a massive issue in the lamb industry at the moment.
"It has been exacerbated by the weather, but prior to that it was an issue getting them, now all the recent rain has delayed them.
"You get into November and the flies are a big problem in the Riverina, so they will all have to be shorn very smartly, or sold, one of the two."
Mr Cabot said this year there is a $30 to $40 disparity in the market for store lambs.
You get into November and the flies are a big problem in the Riverina, so they will all have to be shorn very smartly, or sold, one of the two
- Peter Cabot, Nutrien Ag Solutions
Mr Mountjoy said money and weights for those lambs suitable to be carried on will go hand in hand with the current day pricing that is available.
"If we looked at last year the market was about 900c plus, this year it's around 700c to 750c. The real sweat spot domestic lamb might see 800c" he said.
"But the producer out there at the moment with feed in the paddock and the ability to hold is going to be resistant at selling a 21 kilogram lamb at $7 or $7.50 per kilo.
"So $145 to $155 for a light weight trade lamb they can see more benefit in shearing them and taking the calculated punt to receive north of $7 for a heavy weighted article in the summer/autumn period of 2023.
"I can see that there is going to be a significant amount of lambs held over."
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"Processors wouldn't be unhappy about this spread of supply," Mr Mountjoy said.
"They will have no trouble getting what they need in the next two months regardless of the season, but it is going to push lambs back for them."
He said the entire supply chain has been petered out over the entirety of the year.
"The winter kick in processing was missed due to staffing and lack of kill space," he said.
"Really, this lamb season is spread out over 11 months - the supply is there all of the time, producing a flatter, more consistent playing field over a longer period."
