Despite the higher volatility in the lamb market of late, prices across the nation have held firm as demand for heavy, well-finished lambs carries on.
Yet the national supply of new season lambs continues to run lower than the same time in 2021, as wet weather and logistical issues impact the ability to get lambs to market.
In fact, industry specialists have predicted the expected supply lag of four-weeks to now be extended with a significant amount of 2022 cohort of lambs to be sold in 2023.
According to Meat and Livestock Australia's senior market iInformation analyst Ripley Atkinson, since August, supply of new season lambs has operated 42 per cent or 433,000 head lower.
"As supply continues to trend significantly lower than 12-months ago, the rollover of new season lambs into 2023 is looking increasingly likely as lambs are held back from sale," Mr Atkinson said.
"These will be important considerations for producers when choosing to market lambs and the lambs capacity to add weight and finish in the face of wet conditions impacting their performance."
In NSW new season supply tightened significantly last week with extreme wet weather impacting mustering and transportation capacity across most saleyards.
"Reduced supply didn't spark a significant increase in buyer demand with not all processors operating across all markets," Mr Atkinson said.
"The average price in the state improved by $2 to average $191/head last week."
Compared to the longer-term five-year average price of $163, current prices in NSW are 17pc or $28/head higher.
Average prices at a national level are back by $30/head or 14pc, compared to August-November 2021.
But Mr Atkinson said despite new season lamb prices softening from the record highs seen in 2021, last week's price of $183 was 19pc or $29/head higher than the five-year average of $154/head.
"Although prices have softened, processor buyers continue to prioritise and demand heavy, well-finished lambs," Mr Atkinson said.
"Competition for these articles has continued to remain intense, supporting strong heavy lamb prices across most markets."
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Mecardo analyst Olivia Agar said the wet weather delays has signalled old-season lambs will be carried into next year, again.
"It is likely that we will see lambs that would have normally been sold this year extend out to 2023 so history seems to be repeating itself," Ms Agar said.
"Normally we see a consistent trend in the lamb and sheep market, winter is the lower supply and the peak of price for lamb and sheep, but these unusual supply factors have thrown the normal price patterns out this season."
In Victoria although the spring flush started to gain momentum last week, with an increase of 47pc or 13,000 head week-on-week, supply remains behind year-ago levels.
Mr Atkinson said as a result of the large supply uptick and mixed quality of yardings, prices declined $2 week-on-week to finish at $181/head.
Last week South Australian new season lamb supply declined 6pc with supply continuing to tighten after SA recorded strong yardings in early October.
"Softer supply has driven significantly stronger demand, with prices rising 12.4pc or $20 week-on-week to finish at $181/head," Mr Atkinson said.
"Compared to the five-year average of $139, the lamb price in SA is higher by $30 or $42/head."
Mr Atkinson said looking ahead, current price performance of new season lambs appeared to be in a solid position with finish and weight the major determining factors of price performance.
